Who Benefits from the Collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime in Syria?

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, upending over two decades of autocratic rule and ushering in a moment of both uncertainty and opportunity.

While the demise of Assad’s government creates a strategic vacuum that regional powers are eager to fill, it is the Syrian people who stand to gain the most—if their collective voice is not drowned out by the clamor of external interests.

A Chance for Syrians to Reclaim Their Future

For millions of Syrians, the end of Assad’s rule is more than just the fall of a dictator; it is a chance to dream of a country free from war, oppression, and corruption. Years of brutal crackdowns, indiscriminate bombings, and mass displacement have taken a devastating toll, leaving deep scars on the nation’s psyche and infrastructure.

The collapse of the regime opens the door to rebuilding a state grounded in democratic principles, human rights, and accountability. Civil society groups and grassroots activists, many of whom have persisted in the face of incredible odds, now see an opportunity to shape the nation’s future. However, this vision is far from guaranteed. Without strong international support for reconstruction and governance, Syria risks descending further into chaos.

“This is a historic moment for Syrians,” said Leila, a displaced activist from Aleppo. “But we must ensure that the people, not foreign powers, dictate the future of our country.”

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The Regional Power Scramble

While Syrians work to reclaim their country, regional players are wasting no time positioning themselves to gain from Assad’s downfall.

Turkey: Expanding its Reach

Turkey emerges as a key player in post-Assad Syria. Having long supported opposition groups and maintained a military presence in northern Syria, Ankara is now poised to expand its influence further. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sees this moment as an opportunity to solidify a buffer zone along the border, repatriate millions of Syrian refugees, and weaken Kurdish groups that Turkey perceives as existential threats.

Israel: Weakening the Iranian Axis

For Israel, the fall of Assad represents a significant blow to Iran’s regional ambitions. Assad was a cornerstone of Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” which included supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon. Without the Syrian regime as a reliable ally, Iran’s capacity to project power across the region is significantly weakened. For Israel, this is a strategic victory, reducing the direct threat to its northern borders.

Iran and Russia: The Biggest Losers

Conversely, Assad’s collapse is a strategic disaster for Iran and Russia, his most steadfast supporters. Iran loses a vital ally and a land bridge for arming its proxies, while Russia’s influence in the region is severely diminished. Having invested heavily in propping up Assad, Moscow now faces a diminished role in shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.

The Looming Challenges

While regional powers jockey for position, the greatest risk is that Syrians themselves may be sidelined. The fall of Assad creates a dangerous power vacuum that extremist groups, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, could exploit. The international community must act swiftly to prevent further destabilization and ensure that Syria’s future is guided by inclusive and democratic processes.

Aid organizations and international bodies must prioritize humanitarian assistance, rebuilding efforts, and transitional justice mechanisms to address the grievances of war survivors. Failure to do so could plunge Syria into another cycle of violence and instability.

A Global Responsibility

The world must not forget that this moment, above all, belongs to the Syrian people. Regional powers like Turkey and Israel may benefit strategically, but the ultimate beneficiaries of Assad’s downfall must be the citizens who have endured unimaginable suffering. Their resilience in the face of tyranny is a testament to their determination to reclaim Syria and rebuild it as a nation of hope, freedom, and opportunity.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is a turning point not just for Syria but for the entire region. What comes next will depend on whether Syrians can rise above the influence of competing interests to chart their own path forward. The stakes are high, and the world is watching.