Fortress or Refuge? Canada Prepares for Asylum Surge Amid Trump’s Immigration Crackdown

As President-elect Donald Trump pledges to enact the largest deportation effort in U.S. history, Canadian officials and advocacy groups are bracing for a potential surge of asylum-seekers across their shared border.

Canada’s Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), along with migrant aid organizations, are on high alert as they anticipate an influx of migrants fleeing what they expect will be increasingly inhospitable conditions in the U.S.

Sgt. Charles Poirier of the RCMP revealed that police have been prepping for this potential crisis, understanding that “if he comes into power, it could drive illegal migration and irregular migration” into Canada.

With high numbers of asylum-seekers likely attempting to cross, the RCMP is preparing for a worst-case scenario in which the vast border becomes a daily entry point, stretching their resources thin.

Trump’s earlier presidency in 2017 saw thousands of people seeking refuge in Canada, with many using Roxham Road along the Quebec-New York border as their entryway. However, since a 2023 Canada-U.S. agreement expanded restrictions on asylum-seekers, the 4,000-mile border is now essentially closed to those without special exemptions. This has left asylum-seekers with the risky option of crossing undetected and hiding out for weeks before filing claims — a perilous reality that could become fatal in Canada’s brutal winter months.

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Advocates like Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal, express grave concerns. “When you don’t create legitimate pathways,” he says, “people are going to try to do the impossible.” For asylum-seekers now facing fewer legal avenues for safety, more dangerous and costly routes are becoming the only options. Smugglers, too, have seized on this desperation, reportedly charging higher fees to bring people across the border through covert and perilous means.

Already, Canada’s immigration system is under strain. Refugee claims reached a historic high in July, with nearly 20,000 people filing claims, and an overwhelming 250,000 cases currently pending. Although Canada has reduced its intake of permanent and temporary immigrants, the government has limited control over how many asylum-seekers arrive at its borders. Organizations like Toronto’s FCJ Refugee Centre are struggling to support the rising number of new arrivals and expect a significant uptick in demand as winter approaches.

Past tragedies have underscored the urgency of this issue. In 2022, a family of four froze to death near Emerson, Manitoba, attempting a border crossing in frigid conditions. With winter already looming, refugee advocates warn that even more lives could be at risk.

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Facing the likelihood of a new surge, immigration experts argue that Canada must fortify its asylum system to ensure safe and humane conditions for those arriving. Daoud urges that now is the time to bolster Canada’s infrastructure, not just at the border but throughout the asylum process, to prevent political backlash and improve readiness. Yet, with few details on the government’s contingency plans, advocates worry that Canada’s response could once again be marred by bureaucratic delays and partisan debates.

In response, Immigration Minister Marc Miller has maintained that Canada has a “plan for an asylum-seeker influx,” though details remain under wraps. While Miller emphasizes that the government’s approach will prioritize Canada’s interests, the question remains: Is Canada truly prepared for what may come? As Trump’s return signals tougher times for migrants in the U.S., Canada must confront its own responsibility to either stand as a refuge or reinforce its borders, a decision that may shape the lives of thousands in the months to come.

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